Yields Retreat As Bonds Bounce Off Logical Resistance
Technical analysis allows us to identify logical points of increased supply or demand for any liquid security. We can find places where a change in the direction of price is likely. As previously mentioned, this applies to any liquid security we can chart, including bonds. Over the past week, the financial media has been quick to point out the “spike in bond yields.” While true, bond yields have moved quickly upward since the beginning of February, the bigger trend (yields decreasing) remains intact. And as of the past few days, we find that bonds and yields are reacting to logical points of resistance. Let’s take a look at the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) and the 20+ Year Bond Fund ETF from Barclays (TLT) so you can see what we see. But before we get too far, it should be remembered that the relationship of bond yield to bond price is simply this: when the bond price goes up, its yield goes down and vice versa. Technically said, a bond’s price and its yield are inversely related. Ok, on to the charts.
First, the weekly chart of the 10 Year Treasury Note. Notice that for 20 years now, the yield on the 10 Year has been steadily declining within a well defined trend as marked by the green channel. Annotated in orange is the incredible “spike in yields” being reported. As you can see, this is minor in relation to the overall trend. We do concede that someday, yields will breakout of this channel and begin a new upward trend, bringing many financial ramifications with it. We’ll make sure to let you know when that happens. But for the time being, the overall trend in yields is down.
Taking a closer look at the 10 Year Yield below, we find that its yield has reversed course upon reaching 4 different levels of significant resistance:
- The mid-channel line dating back 20 years
- Demand/supply dating back to 2009
- 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from 2013 highs
- Former support turned resistance dating back to 2012
This is a logical move and one that indicates a high probability of resuming the downward pressure on yields.
The resumption in downward yield pressure and upward bond price movement can also be seen by taking a look at the 20+ Year Bond ETF, TLT. Looking at the chart below, it’s easy to see that prices dropped from January highs and have so far found demand around the 126 level, which used to be a prior supply/resistance level. In addition, this bond ETF continues to move within an upward slopping series of tram lines. Until the 126 level and lower boundary tram line is broken, the trend in bond prices remains up. With bonds finding support here and major stock markets breaking out across the globe, it’s our opinion that we’re likely headed into an environment of rising bonds and stocks. In the end, however, that is our opinion. We don’t trade on our opinion. We trade on price, the only opinion that matters.
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